Inuit hunters and elders throughout the circumpolar Northfrom Chukotka to Greenlandhave reported changes to the environment as a result of climate change. In the Arctic, adapting to climate change is an increasingly important issue. But why is the climate changing? The vast majority of climate change scientists worldwide believe that emission of greenhouse gases, particularly Carbon Dioxide, when fossil fuels are burned, is a significant if partial cause of climate change.

The Kyoto Protocola subsidiary agreement to the conventionsets out targets for greenhouse gas emissions, but the protocol has not been ratified by the United States or Russia and has not entered into force (although Russia has announced to ratify). It may never do so. The politics of climate change are very difficult. There is a wide gap between western Europe and the United States over what needs to be done, how quickly, how much it will cost, and the implications of inaction.

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) has been conducted in this difficult international environment. The assessment is path-breaking. It is the world's most comprehensive and detailed regional assessment of the impacts of climate change, and it was put together by more than 300 scientists from 15 countries. It draws upon the traditional knowledge of Inuit and other northern Indigenous Peoples and concludes that climate change is happening now in the Arctic and will accelerate in coming years with likely severe impacts.

Climate change is more pronounced in the Arctic than elsewhere. The Arctic is the world's climate change "barometer" and Inuit are the mercury in that barometer. So the ACIA is important to Inuit and all Arctic residents as well as to decision-makers from states around the world. The ACIA warns us of what is coming.

In May 2004, ICC hosted a workshop in Iqaluit that involved Inuit from all regions in northern Canada. Bob Corell, the Chair of the ACIA, attended and briefed Inuit leaders on what he and his colleagues had concluded.

This issue of Silarjualiriniq includes the key conclusions of the ACIA and a speech given in September by Sheila Watt-Cloutier, Chair of ICC, to the United States Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation.

This issue of Silarjualiriniq has been prepared with the financial support of the Walter and Duncan Gordon Foundation and the Government of Canada.

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Key Findings

Executive Summary

The Arctic is extremely vulnerable to observed and projected climate change and its impacts. The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on Earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels.

1.                   Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger changes are projected

         Annual average arctic temperature has increased at almost twice the lower latitude rate over the past several decades, with some variations across the region.

         Additional evidence of arctic warming comes from widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice, and a shortening of the snow season.

         Increasing global concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, are projected to contribute to additional arctic warming of about 4-7C, about twice the global average rise, over the next 100 years.

         Increasing precipitation, shorter and warmer winters, and substantial decreases in snow and ice cover are among the projected changes that are very likely to persist for centuries.

         Unexpected and even larger shifts and fluctuations in climate are also possible.

CUTIVE SUMMARY: Key Findings

2.                   Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide implications

         Melting of highly reflective arctic snow and ice reveals darker land and ocean surfaces, increasing absorption of the Suns heat and further warming the planet.

         Increases in glacial melt and river runoff add more freshwater to the ocean, raising global sea level and possibly slowing the ocean circulation that brings heat from the tropics to the poles, affecting global and regional climate.

         Warming is very likely to alter both the release and uptake of greenhouse gases from soils, vegetation, and coastal oceans.

         Impacts of arctic climate change will have implications for biodiversity around the world because migratory species depend on breeding and feeding grounds in the Arctic.

3.                   Arctic vegetation zones are projected to shift, bringing wide-ranging impacts

         Tree line is expected to move northward and to higher elevations, with forests replacing a significant fraction of existing tundra, and tundra vegetation moving into polar deserts.

         More productive vegetation is likely to increase carbon uptake, although reduced reflectivity of the land surface is likely to outweigh this, causing further warming.

         Disturbances such as insect infesta-tions and forest fires are very likely to increase in frequency, severity, and duration, facilitating invasions by non-native species.

         Where suitable soils are present, agriculture will have the potential to expand northward due to a longer and warmer growing season and increased precipitation.

4.                   Animal species' diversity, ranges, and distribution will change

         Reductions in sea ice will drastically shrink marine habitat for polar bears, ice-inhabiting seals, and some seabirds, pushing some species toward extinction.

         Caribou/reindeer and other animals on land are likely to be increasingly stressed as climate warming alters their access to food sources, breeding grounds, and historic migration routes.

         Species ranges are projected to shift northward on both land and sea, bringing new species into the Arctic while severely limiting some species currently present.

         As new species move in, animal diseases that can be transmitted to humans, such as West Nile Virus, are likely to pose increasing health risks.

         Some arctic marine fisheries, which provide food for the world and major contributions to the regions economy, are likely to become more productive, while northern freshwater fisheries that are mainstays of local diets are likely to suffer.

5.                   Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing exposure to storms

         Severe coastal erosion will be a growing problem as rising sea level and a reduction in sea ice allow higher waves and storm surges to reach shore.

         Along some Arctic coastlines, thawing permafrost weakens coastal lands, adding to their vulnerability.

         The risk of flooding in coastal wetlands is projected to increase, with impacts on society and natural ecosystems.

         In some cases, communities and industrial facilities in coastal zones are already threatened or being forced to relocate, while others face increasing risks and costs.

6.                   Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources

         The continuing reduction of sea ice is very likely to lengthen the navigation season and increase marine access to the Arctics natural resources.

         Seasonal opening of the Northern Sea Route is likely to make trans-Arctic shipping during summer feasible within several decades. Increasing ice movement in some channels of the Northwest Passage could initially make shipping more difficult.

         Reduced sea ice is likely to allow increased offshore extraction of oil and gas, although increasing ice movement could hinder some operations.

         Sovereignty, security, and safety issues, as well as social, cultural, and environmental concerns are likely to arise as marine access increases.

7.                   Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings, and other infrastructure

         Transportation and industry on land, including oil and gas extraction and forestry, will increasingly be disrupted by the shortening of the periods during which ice roads and tundra are frozen sufficiently to permit travel.

         As frozen ground thaws, many existing buildings, roads, pipelines, airports, and industrial facilities are likely to be destabilized, requiring substantial rebuilding, maintenance, and investment.

         Future development will require new design elements to account for ongoing warming that will add to construction and maintenance costs.

         Permafrost degradation will also impact natural ecosystems through collapsing of the ground surface, draining of lakes, wetland development, and toppling of trees in susceptible areas.

8.                   Indigenous communities are facing major economic and cultural impacts

         Many Indigenous Peoples depend on hunting polar bear, walrus, seals, and caribou, herding reindeer, fishing, and gathering, not only for food and to support the local economy, but also as the basis for cultural and social identity.

         Changes in species ranges and availability, access to these species, a perceived reduction in weather predictability, and travel safety in changing ice and weather conditions present serious challenges to human health and food security, and possibly even the survival of many cultures.

         Indigenous knowledge and observations provide an important source of information about climate change. This knowledge, consistent with complementary information from scientific research, indicates that substantial changes have already occurred.

9.                   Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people, plants, and animals

         The stratospheric ozone layer over the Arctic is not expected to improve significantly for at least a few decades, largely due to the effect of greenhouse gases on stratospheric temperatures. Ultraviolet radiation (UV) in the Arctic is thus projected to remain elevated in the coming decades.

         As a result, the current generation of arctic young people is likely to receive a lifetime dose of UV that is about 30% higher than any prior generation. Increased UV is known to cause skin cancer, cataracts, and immune system disorders in humans.

         Elevated UV can disrupt photosynthesis in plants and have detrimental effects on the early life stages of fish and amphibians.

         Risks to some arctic ecosystems are likely as the largest increases in UV occur in springtime, when sensitive species are most vulnerable, and warming-related declines in snow and ice cover increase exposure for living things normally protected by that cover.

10.               Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people and ecosystems

         Changes in climate are occurring in the context of many other stresses including chemical pollution, over-fishing, land use changes, habitat fragmentation, human population increases, and cultural and economic changes.

         These multiple stresses can combine to amplify impacts on human and ecosystem health and well-being. In many cases, the total impact is greater than the sum of its parts, such as the combined impacts of chemical contaminants, excess ultraviolet radiation, and climatic warming.

         Unique circumstances in arctic sub-regions determine which are the most important stresses and how they interact.

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Testimony of Sheila Watt-Cloutier, Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference